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Abstracts of papers published by teachers of Institute of Economics (Issue 16)

1.Dou, Bin;Guo, SongLin;Chang, XiaoChen;Wang Yong, Corporate digital transformation and labor structure upgrading,《International Review of Financial Analysis》Nov 2023

【Abstract】Corporate digital transformation aims to transform general-purpose technology into specific technology truly needed for development. Unlike informatisation related to business outsourcing, digitalisation needs professional labourers skilled in digital hardware and software, which means that the corporate digital transformation would promote the upgrade of the labour structure. This paper examines the financial and text data of annual reports of listed companies in China to test this theoretical hypothesis. We use word segmentation technology and word frequency statistical methods to construct corporate digital transformation indicators and empirically test corporate digital transformation's impact on labour force structure. The empirical outcomes indicate that corporate digital transformation has significantly increased the proportion of highly educated, highly skilled and research and development researchers. In this process, China's unique 'engineer dividend' can enhance the positive impact of digital transformation on upgrading the labour structure. The conclusion of this paper provides rich empirical evidence for accelerating the digital transformation and taking advantage of the engineer dividend in China.

2.Kang, Wenjin;Tang, Ke;Wang, Ningli, Financialization of commodity markets ten years later ,《Journal of Commodity Markets》Jun 2023

【Abstract】In this study, we examine whether the key findings in Tang and Xiong (2012) hold in the more recent sample years after their publication. We also explore the impact of financialization on different aspects of commodity futures markets in more detail. Our analysis shows that financi-alization leads to a significant increase of the correlation between the commodity and stock market returns. This return correlation structure change is robust to different commodity and stock market return computation methods, and is persistent for the more recent post-Tang-and-Xiong-(2012) subsample period. We find that after financialization, the importance of non-commercial traders elevates, the pairwise correlation between the indexed commodity futures increases, and the basis becomes more negative on commodity futures markets.

3.Cong,Lin;Li, Xi;Tang, Ke;Yang,Yang ,Crypto wash trading ,《Management Science》 2023

【Abstrac】We introduce systematic tests exploiting robust statistical and behavioral patterns in trading to detect fake transactions on 29 cryptocurrency exchanges. Regulated exchanges feature patterns consistently observed in financial markets and nature; abnormal first-significant-digit distributions, size rounding, and transaction tail distributions on unregulated exchanges reveal rampant manipulations unlikely driven by strategy or exchange heterogeneity. We quantify the wash trading on each unregulated exchange, which averaged over 70% of the reported volume. We further document how these fabricated volumes (trillions of dollars annually) improve exchange ranking, temporarily distort prices, and relate to exchange characteristics (e.g., age and userbase), market conditions, and regulation.

4.Yajing Huang;Taoxiong Liu; Donald Lien,Portfolio homogeneity and systemic risk of financial networks,《Journal of Empirical Finance》,Jan 2023

【Abstract】 The present study argues that systemic risk can be understood from two different perspectives, the homogeneity of asset portfolios held by different financial institutions and contagion mechanism. Existing works only emphasize contagion as the basic mechanism of financial crisis. Portfolio homogeneity increases the positive correlations among institutions and therefore the probability of simultaneous collapses of a considerable part of the network. When the contagion was fairly weak, a high portfolio homogeneity would lead to high systemic risk. But, if the contagion is considerably strong, the systemic risk would quite likely be negatively correlated to portfolio homogeneity.

5.Litan, Huiyi;Rong, Ke;Wu, Youran;Xie, Danxia;Zhang, Hanzhe;Zhao, Dong ,Profit versus Sustainability in Bikeshare,《Sustainable Cities and Society》Jun 2023

【Abstract】Bicycling is a green transportation mode that is essential for the sustainability of population-dense cities. Bikeshare is an emerging business-to-consumer (B2C) model that sustains bicycling and complements other public transits. By 2021, the number of shared bikes in China had grown to 437 million and its revenue to 1.31 billion US dollars. Previous research has focused on businesses' profit-maximizing decisions but has not considered the societal sustainability impacts of these decisions that could produce an excessive number of bikes and often conflict with the environment. In other words, sustainable cities need a sustainable growth of bike sharing. Our research fills this gap by building a novel game-theoretic model in which a bikeshare firm will make decisions regarding the trade-off between the accessibility (quantity) and sustainability (quality) of its bikes to maximize its rate of return. Our analysis deduces that the firm with more financial capital attains higher platform performance by prioritizing accessibility over sustainability. We offer government policies, such as number limitation, oversupply taxation, bike infrastructure investment, and technology advancement subsidy, to correct firms' excessive drive for profit over sustainability. These policies help address the Sustainable Development Goal 11 to achieve sustainable cities and communities.

6.Rong, Ke;Lin, Yong;Du, Wei;Yang, Shuaishuai ,Business ecosystem-oriented business model in the digital era,《Technology Analysis and Strategic Management》Mar 2023

【Abstract】Along with the fast development of digital technologies, innovative business models were booming in the last two decades, which demands further investigation of the growing research trends of business models in the digital era. This research adopts bibliometrics techniques to explore business models in the extant literature, and then uses structured reviews to conduct content analysis which leads to the identification of research trends and propositions. The analysis shows that most of the literature could be summarised into a 4V-BM framework covering value proposition, value creation, value delivery and value capture. Moreover, it reveals and verifies three trending areas that focus on dynamics, digitalisation, and business ecosystem. Based on these findings, this research proposes a concept of ecosystem-oriented business mode which reflect the three trending features. The research findings offer insights to entrepreneurs and ecosystem organisations regarding the current business model in digital transformation and its potential economic impact.

7.Li, Hongjun;Li, Zheng; Hsiao, Cheng,Assessing the impacts of pandemic and the increase in minimum down payment rate on Shanghai housing prices,《Empirical Economics》,Jun 2023

【Abstract】In 2016, the city of Shanghai increased the minimum down payment rate requirement for purchasing various types of properties. We study the treatment effect of this major policy change on Shanghai's housing market by employing panel data from March 2009 to December 2021. Since the observed data are either in the form of no treatment or under the treatment but before and after the outbreak of COVID-19, we use the panel data approach suggested by Hsiao et al. (J Appl Econ, 27(5):705-740, 2012) to estimate the treatment effects and a time-series approach to disentangle the treatment effects and the effects of the pandemic. The results suggest that the average treatment effect on the housing price index of Shanghai over 36 months after the treatment is -8.17%. For time periods after the outbreak of the pandemic, we find no significant impact of the pandemic on the real estate price indices between 2020 and 2021.

8.Corradi,V.; Sainan Jin and N.Swanson, Robust Forecast Superiority Testing with an Application to Assessing Pools of Expert Forecasters,《Journal of Applied Econometrics》Jun 2023

【Abstract】We develop forecast superiority tests that are robust to the choice of loss function by following Jin, Corradi and Swanson (JCS: 2017), and relying on a mapping between generic loss forecast evaluation and stochastic dominance principles. However, unlike JCS tests, which are not uniformly valid and are correctly sized only under the least favorable case, our tests are uniformly asymptotically valid and non-conservative. To show this, we establish uniform convergence of HAC variance estimators. Monte Carlo experiments indicate good finite sample performance of our tests, and an empirical illustration suggests that prior forecast accuracy matters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters.

9.Li,Y.; S. Wang, Sainan Jin and Z. Xiao, A new test for unit roots with a partial quadratic trend, 《Econometrics Journal》Nov 2023

【Abstract】This paper proposes a new test for unit root processes with a partial quadratic trend on an unknown break date, denoted as the URQ process herein. Such a process is extremely similar to the explosive bubble process, and both can capture the sharp rise in prices. We develop the asymptotic distributions under the local-to-unity hypothesis, which covers the URQ null and explosive root alternatives. Simulations show that the test has good finite sample performances and can differentiate explosive bubble processes from URQ processes. An application to the Kweichow Moutai and Apple stocks, which exhibit striking price rises during their respective sample periods, shows that both prices follow URQ processes. We further provide a fundamental analysis. The significant increases in earnings, returns, dividends, and fundamental score after the partial quadratic trend occurs provide evidence that a fundamental improvement rather than a bubble mainly drives such drastic price rises.

10.Cao, Y.;Sainan Jin,;X. Lu and L. Su, Oracle Efficient Estimation of Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Models with Interactive Fixed Effects,《 Journal of Business & Economic Statistics. 》 JAN 2024

【Abstract】We propose a two-step procedure to estimate a heterogeneous dynamic panel data model with interactive fixed effects. We establish the asymptotic properties of the estimators and show that the final estimator is oracle efficient. We also propose a specification test for the null hypothesis of homogeneous slopes and study the asymptotic properties of the test statistic under both local and global alternatives. Simulations demonstrate the fine performance of the estimator and test statistic. The new estimation and inference methods are applied to study the heterogeneous effects of minimum wage on employment across different counties in the United States. Our dynamic model suggests that the changes of employment range from about-1% to 1% when the minimum wage increases by 1%.

11.Junbyoung Oh; Zhen Sun; Kineung Choo, Financial Market Reactions to Patent Litigation:An Event Study of Litigation in Korea ,《Korean Economic Review 》 Winter 2023

【Abstract】This paper investigates patent litigation in Korea to examine how the stock market responds to a patent litigation announcement and determine whether the response is consistent with the final litigation outcome. Employing an event study methodology, we investigate cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) based on various litigant characteristics and find a strong and negative stock market response to a litigation announcement, especially towards patent owners and small firms. The final outcome of litigation for a small innovator is negatively correlated with a stock market response, even when the patent is found valid and the owner wins the case. This implies that small innovators are more likely to experience a negative response from the stock market, and they are much more vulnerable to patent litigation, paying additional fringe costs to protect their intellectual properties. The study suggests a policy implication in which the litigation process needs to consider such disadvantages to small innovators as a means of improving procedural fairness in patent litigation.

12.Zhifeng Yin and Zhen Sun, Predicting the value of Chinese patents using patent characteristics: evidence based on a Chinese patent auction, 《 Industrial and Corporate Change 》NOV 22 2023

【Abstract】This study revisits the question of predicting patent value with observed patent statistics, exploiting a rare public auction of patents in China in which the starting prices are used as approximates of patent private value. Family size and the number of assignees come out as the most consistent indicators, while notably, forward citations turn out to be not important. This discrepancy with past studies is investigated. We propose some of the institutional features in the Chinese patent system could lead to the forward citations not as informative as their counterpart in other jurisdictions. The findings bear important implications as Chinese patent data are increasingly being used in innovation studies.

13.Peng He, Xu Bau, Di Cao, Jinxi Wu*, The Network Structures and Characteristics of Global Hubs of STI in Big Data Analysis and Mining Technology《Science, Technology & Society 》Jun 2023

【Abstract】Global hubs of STI are strategic nodes in the global science network and will lead the future of global scientific progress. This paper takes big data analysis and mining technology as an example, exploring the structures and characteristics of global science network of 15 representative global hubs of STI from 2000 to 2019. Based on the data of highly cited papers and methods of social network analysis, we find that the global science network has the structure of hierarchy, with an obvious characteristic of regionality. Based on the structures and characteristics of global science network, the knowledge flow and management model of global hubs has been proposed, which may be conducive to strengthening the knowledge management and network collaboration among global hubs of STI in other frontier technologies.