In 2003, the international community will attach greater importance and pay more attention to security issues than the economy. And the right-leaning currents of thought will push many countries into adopting a foreign policy that is inclined towards self-protection.

Since the United States has not altered its strategic aim to change the regime in Iraq, the possibility of a war still exists.

And in the Middle East, with the intention of putting an end to the rule of Arafat, the Sharon administration of Israel is very likely to continue its military strikes against the current Palestinian administration.

How the Israel-Palestine military conflict proceeds, however, is largely dependent on any US-Iraq war. If war breaks out, Israel will adopt a refrained stance, so as to co-ordinate with the US in attempting to reduce opposition from the Arab world.

But Israel will almost certainly strike Palestine once that war ends.

With the bettering of its economy, Russia would also probably enlarge the scale of its military involvement in Chechnya to eliminate the threat of terrorism by Chechen separatist forces.

Due to the conflicting stances between the United States and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), the US-DPRK nuclear crisis could possibly lead to military tension on the Korean Peninsula.

World attention would thus be focused on international security issues to meet the growth of threats.

Many countries would pay more attention to security rather than to economic interests when drawing up their foreign policies. And irrespective of whether or not the world economy of 2003 improves, economic issues will not be as attention-grabbing as security issues.

Without a sea change in the economic situation of the United States, Japan and the European Union (EU), whose economies occupy two-thirds of the world's total, the global economy is hardly likely to arouse people's attention.

Though the economic growth of China, Russia and India looks set to be swifter, the overall situation of the world's economy will remain relatively unchanged as those three nations do not occupy a high percentage of the world's total.

In 2003, the major contradictions in political relations between the major powers will be concentrated on the United States, while relations between China, Russia, the EU, Japan and India can be improved.

Due to its overall strength, the United States is not likely to significantly refrain from its unilateralist policy. Countries that bear the greatest level of resentment against Washington will, of course, all try to avoid a military confrontation with the United States.

If the United States wages war against Iraq, France and Germany are unlikely to give their full support, which would surely intensify the political differences between the United States and the EU.

If the DPRK's nuclear issue fails to reach a peaceful solution, it may induce a unilateral military action on the part of Washington, which would possibly intensify the political contradictions between Washington, Beijing and Moscow, and even arouse a divergence between the United States, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK).

During the election period in Taiwan in late 2003, the island's separatist forces will probably further seek to provoke the Chinese mainland. Consequently, Sino-US strategic relations could possibly be adversely influenced.

The beginning of the dialogue between China and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will contribute to establishing mutual trust.

The close economic ties between China and Japan should contribute to preventing their bilateral ties from worsening. The trend of regionalization in East Asia will also help promote consultation between China and Japan on East Asian affairs.

With the consensus that improved Sino-Indian relations and are conducive to stability in South Asia, both sides will try to enhance dialogue on the basis of maintaining the current relationship.

Realizing that it is unable to prevent NATO's eastward enlargement, Russia could take advantage of the politicizing effect of NATO's enlargement to better its relations with European countries.

Under pressure of the enlarging NATO, Russia is likely to actively improve its relations with the Asian powers. Besides consolidating the Russia-China strategic co-operative partnership, Russia could enhance its co-operation with India and further push the trilateral co-operation of Russia, China and India.

The impact of the right-leaning trend would be further increased and the foreign policies of many countries would incline to self-protectionism.

The United States will strengthen its military industry and defence.

The difference in global security interests between the EU and the United States will push the former to attach more importance to building an independent defence capability.

And the conflict in Chechnya will force Russia to upgrade the combat capability of its forces.

Japan could well seek to enlarge its military participation in the name of supporting the US anti-terrorism war, resulting in the growth of its military forces.

The ever-growing threat of Taiwan separatism will compel the Chinese mainland to maintain a balance between its defence build-up and economic construction.

Since the United States has been inactive in arms control, the international arms control co-operation would slow down or even stagnate.

Moreover, the acceleration of the US programme to develop an anti-missile defence system and an emphasis on the strategy of pre-emptive strikes threatens to lead to a new arms race.

Therefore, global military expenditure in 2003 will be considerably increased.

But generally speaking, the world situation in 2003 will be turbulent, but not catastrophic.

The author is director of the Institute of International Studies under Tsinghua University.

(China Daily YAN XUETONG 02/01/2003)