On the road to achieving carbon neutrality, the chemical industry has consistently been a "hard nut to crack," especially in the production of ammonia and methanol, which are not only major products of the industry but also significant sources of carbon emissions. In China, the production of ammonia and methanol primarily relies on fossil resources such as coal, making coal-based chemical synthesis the industry with high carbon emission intensity. Finding ways to achieve deep decarbonization in the chemical industry without compromising production safety is an urgent issue to address.
Current electrification pathways for the chemical industry mostly rely on grid power, which often shifts carbon emissions from the chemical sector to the power sector and may even increase the total carbon emissions nationwide. To address this, the research team has proposed a new approach called "green flexible chemical electrification" (GFCE). This approach constructs an integrated system through a direct connection to green power and combines advanced hydrogen-ammonia-methanol coupling control and scheduling technologies to achieve deep electrification of the chemical production process. Compared to electrification pathways that rely solely on grid power, the GFCE approach not only significantly reduces carbon emissions in both the power and chemical sectors but also optimizes operations through electric-hydrogen synergy, minimizing impacts on the grid and enhancing the security of the power system.
On June 5, the Department of Electrical Engineering at Tsinghua University, in collaboration with the National Engineering Laboratory for Big Data at Peking University, published a study titled "Redesigning electrification of China’s ammonia and methanol industry to balance decarbonization with power system security" in Nature Energy. This research presents a new solution — the "green flexible chemical electrification" (GFCE) pathway — which achieves electric-hydrogen collaborative decarbonization through deep coupling between the power system and green flexible chemical electrification.
The core of the GFCE pathway lies in its two key attributes: "green" and "flexible." The term "green" refers to the provision of green power for chemical production through direct connections, achieving low carbon reductions at the source side. "Flexible" reflects the adaptable operation of the electric-hydrogen collaborative system, buffering the intermittency and variability of renewable energy, thereby allowing chemical production to achieve a balance of energy supply and demand across different timescales.
Fig. 1| A conceptual diagram of four chemical production pathways. a, Fossil-based chemical production. b, Yellow inflexible chemical electrification (YICE). c, Green inflexible chemical electrification (GICE). d, Green flexible chemical electrification (GFCE).
To comprehensively assess the performance of the GFCE pathway, the research team developed an integrated analytical framework encompassing three key indicators: carbon emissions, power system security, and economic viability. This framework includes two core models: first, the Chemical Side Capacity Planning and Flexible Operation (CP&FO) model, which can dynamically plan the capacity of renewable energy sources, electrolyzers, and hydrogen storage tanks based on industrial testing data and process simulations, optimizing their operating modes to adapt to changes in market and policy conditions; second, the Economic Dispatch and Unit Commitment (ED&UC) model, which balances the efficiency and reliability of the power system by optimizing national economic dispatch and provincial unit commitment, while considering the volatility of chemical production loads.
Additionally, the research team developed a detailed database covering comprehensive data on the chemical industry and power systems in 22 provinces of China, including the distribution of renewable energy, chemical production loads, and power transmission networks. Based on this data, the team conducted detailed simulations and analyses of the GFCE pathway in different provinces. They found that by 2030, the GFCE pathway demonstrates significant economic competitiveness nationwide, with the production of green ammonia potentially having a cost advantage compared to gray ammonia. Furthermore, optimizing the electricity pricing mechanism to further incentivize flexible demand management in the chemical industry can enhance the synergy between the power and chemical sectors.
The study also analyzed the long-term development trends of the GFCE pathway. The results indicate that as the penetration rate of renewable energy in both the power and chemical sectors continues to increase, the carbon reduction effects and economics of the GFCE pathway will continually improve. By 2050, the GFCE pathway is expected to achieve large-scale deployment nationwide, providing strong support for the deep decarbonization of the chemical industry.
To promote the implementation of the GFCE pathway, the research team recommends that the government introduce a series of policy support measures. For example, subsidies or carbon tax policies could be considered for provinces where the production costs of green ammonia and green methanol are high, thereby lowering investment barriers and encouraging market development. The team also proposes improvements to the electricity pricing mechanism, directing chemical production loads to be more favorable for grid operation through market-driven real-time pricing, further enhancing the synergy between the power and chemical industries.
The "green flexible chemical electrification" pathway proposed by the Department of Electrical Engineering at Tsinghua University offers a novel solution for decarbonizing the utilization of new energy and the preparation of ammonia and methanol. By coupling green flexible chemical electrification directly with green power, it not only significantly reduces carbon emissions from the chemical industry but also enhances the security of the power system, providing strong support for achieving carbon neutrality. This research can serve as a technical reference for China’s energy transition and the green transformation of the chemical industry. The Department of Electrical Engineering at Tsinghua University and the Tsinghua Sichuan Energy Internet Research Institute have long been engaged in the field of key equipment and system control for green flexible chemical electrification systems, and this work reflects the results of many years of research in the green hydrogen industry.
Main authorship: Jiarong Li, a postdoctoral research fellow from Tsinghua University and Harvard University; Jin Lin, an associate professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering; and Jianxiao Wang, a research associate professor at the National Engineering Laboratory for Big Data Analysis and Applications at Peking University, are co-first authors of the paper. Jin Lin, Jianxiao Wang, and Prof. Xi Lu from the School of Environment and the Institute for Carbon Neutrality at Tsinghua University are co-corresponding authors.
This research is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program's Hydrogen Energy Technology Project, the Carbon Neutrality and Energy System Transition Project (CNEST), the National Natural Science Foundation, the Energy Foundation China, and other initiatives.
Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-025-01779-9
Editor: Li Han
