校园看点全球变化科学紫荆论坛第331期: 气候变暖下强台风比例增加及最大强度位置北移的探究

 

讲座信息

报告题目:Understanding of the Increased Proportion of Intense Typhoons and Northward Shift of the Lifetime Maximum Intensity Location
报告人:吴立广教授 复旦大学 
报告时间:2020年1月2日 15:00
报告地点: 清华大学蒙民伟科技大楼南楼S818
主办单位: 清华大学地球系统科学系

讲座简介

The proportion of intense tropical cyclones (Category 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) has increased.  It is demonstrated that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoonsduring 1980-2015 is consistent with the corresponding changes in the ocean/atmosphere environment. The deepening of the ocean mixed layer resulting from the temporal variations and track shifts plays a dominant role in the observed increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. The annual mean latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs) reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) over the western North Pacific basin (WNP) has shifted northward since the early 1980s and it is suggested that the shift is due to the northward migration of the mean TC formation location. It is suggested that the observed poleward trend in the mean latitude of LMI is physically consistent with changes in the large-scale ocean/atmosphere environment and TC track. This study also demonstrates that the temporal change in the environmental parameters has little influence on the observed shift of the mean LMI latitude. The poleward migration of the mean LMI latitude is mainly due to the TC track shift, which results primarily from the change in the large-scale steering flow.

图文提供单位:清华大学地球系统科学系